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2024-12-13 05:36:10

Guotai Junan: Airline naked fares will keep rising year-on-year, and the pressure on oil prices will continue to improve. Guotai Junan Research Report said that the recent trend of passenger flow and load factor conforms to the characteristics of off-season, and is better than the same period in 2023. The pressure on oil prices has improved significantly since the fourth quarter of 2024. In December, the ex-factory price of domestic jet fuel increased slightly by 3% from the previous month and decreased by 17% year-on-year, continuing the downward trend of the central government. Recently, domestic naked fares have kept rising year-on-year, and it is estimated that more than half of the fuel has been reduced, reflecting that the recovery of supply and demand is better than expected, and it is expected that the off-season will greatly reduce losses year-on-year. Considering that the recent decline in international oil prices will be transmitted to China with a delay of about two months, the oil price pressure will continue to improve in the first quarter of 2025. It is predicted that the concentration of passenger flow in Spring Festival travel rush in the first half of 2025 will contribute to the active revenue management of the airline company, and the peak season may show more than expected profit elasticity and catalyze optimistic expectations. Reaffirm the logic of super cycle and long period of aviation equipment. When supply and demand recover, considering the marketization of fares and the slowdown of fleet growth, the profit center can be expected to rise.Guotai Junan: Actively grasp the double-low and low-premium convertible bonds with high selective price and good flexibility. Guotai Junan said that the probability of short-term risk events is not high, and the liquidity of the domestic stock market is also supported. Considering the A500 opening of positions, the allocation of insurance and wealth management products and the year-end ranking of funds, we should actively prepare for the new year-end rebound of China stock market from December 2024 to January 2025. Actively grasp the new year's rebound, high selective price and good flexibility of double low and low premium convertible bonds.South Korea's Ministry of Finance: Considering the economic fundamentals, South Korea's exchange rate fluctuates too much.


CITIC Securities: In November, the PPI turned positive more than expected, and the core CPI continued to improve. According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the price data in November 2024 showed that the boosting effect on the economy after the policy shift in late September initially appeared at the "price end", mainly in two aspects: "PPI turned positive" and "continuous improvement of core CPI". In terms of PPI, this month's PPI turned positive more than expected, and the main contributions came from "the effect of trade-in for new products is gradually appearing at the price end of related industries" and "the acceleration of physical workload of infrastructure has boosted the prices of raw materials industries in the upper and middle reaches". It is embodied in the remarkable improvement of PPI in computer machine manufacturing, communication terminal equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, durable consumer goods (means of subsistence), non-metallic mineral products industry and other industries. In terms of CPI, although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI further declined to 0.2%, which was significantly lower than the market expectation, it was largely affected by the over-seasonal decline in food prices. The core CPI, which the market paid more attention to, continued to improve slightly on the margin, with the year-on-year reading rising from 0.1% at the bottom of September to 0.2% in October and 0.3% in November. In terms of splitting, the CPI decline of the three major durable consumer goods and services has narrowed compared with the same period of last year. On the whole, the combination of "CPI 0.2%+PPI -2.5%" reveals that China is still facing significant "low inflation" pressure, and it is still necessary to continue to strengthen the price level with a package of incremental policies. Looking back, if the boosting effect of the "two new" policies on the demand of downstream industrial products and the driving effect of the accelerated issuance of special bonds on the physical workload of infrastructure can be released continuously, it will provide some support for the improvement of PPI; However, if you want to see the PPI continue to turn positive significantly, you may have to wait for the policy to further push the physical workload and real estate start-up data, as well as the more stringent supply-side optimization policies in some areas with more production capacity.Japanese and Korean stock markets opened higher, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 0.55% to 39,375.49 points. South Korea's KOSPI index rose 1% to 2,384.51 points.In October, China's corporate credit index was 158.83 points, and the trend of steady improvement continued to consolidate. The General Administration of Market Supervision announced today (10th) that in October, 2024, China's corporate credit index was 158.83 points, up 0.47 points from September, and the steady improvement of corporate credit level continued to consolidate.


South Korea's opposition party said that if necessary, it can seek to introduce additional budgets later.Liu Jianchao met with New Zealand Ambassador to China Maury. According to the website of the International Liaison Department of the CPC Central Committee, on December 9, Liu Jianchao, Minister of the International Liaison Department of the CPC Central Committee, met with the outgoing New Zealand Ambassador to China Maury in Beijing. Liu Jianchao spoke highly of Mao Rui's contribution to the development of China-Singapore relations during his tenure. Liu Jianchao said that since China and Singapore established a comprehensive strategic partnership for 10 years, pragmatic cooperation in various fields has yielded fruitful results. At present, the world situation is uncertain and unstable. China and New Zealand are both in the Asia-Pacific region. A stable and sustainable Sino-New Zealand relationship is conducive to regional and world peace and prosperity. China is willing to work with Singapore to close inter-party exchanges, strengthen political dialogue, deepen pragmatic cooperation in various fields, and promote the stability and far-reaching relations between China and Singapore.Twenty-four companies disclosed the progress of repurchase. Hikvision, 800 million Time and Space, and Jade Bird had the highest amount of fire repurchase plans. On December 10th, a total of 24 companies issued stock repurchase announcements. Among them, seven companies disclosed the stock repurchase plan for the first time, one company's repurchase plan was approved by the shareholders' meeting, four companies disclosed the implementation progress of stock repurchase, and 12 companies' repurchase plans have been implemented. Judging from the initial disclosure of the repurchase plan, the amount of stock repurchase plans of four companies on that day exceeded 10 million. Hikvision, 800 million Time and Space, and Jade Bird have the highest repurchase plans, and they are planned to repurchase no more than 2.5 billion yuan, 100 million yuan and 86.1216 million yuan respectively. Judging from the repurchase plan passed by the shareholders' meeting, a total of one company's repurchase plan exceeded 10 million on that day. Henghui Security has the highest repurchase amount, and it is planned to repurchase no more than 60 million yuan.

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